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★ ELITE MARKET POINT
Strength through knowledge
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The S&P closed at a record. The Nasdaq logged its 11th straight win. And then 5.6 million VIX contracts expired.
Yesterday was the celebration. Today is the hangover check. The gamma cushion that kept this rally orderly is gone — and OPEX is tomorrow.
What Goldman is actually telling its best clients right now — and why today and tomorrow matter more than the last two weeks.
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Key Idea
Wednesday delivered the record. The S&P closed at 7,022. The Nasdaq posted its longest win streak since 2021. But while everyone was celebrating, 5.6 million VIX contracts quietly expired — stripping the gamma cushion that kept this rally smooth. OPEX hits tomorrow. The market just lost its shock absorber right when it needs one most.
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What Happened Yesterday
Wednesday was a milestone session. The S&P 500 closed at 7,022.95 — a fresh all-time record high, surpassing its January 28th peak. The Nasdaq Composite surged 1.6% to 24,016, logging its 11th consecutive winning day for the first time since November 2021. The broad market has now erased every penny of its post-February 27th war selloff.
Goldman's Rich Provorotsky confirmed the full retracement. Tony Pasquariello points out what veterans already know — this conflict followed the textbook. Equity markets find their floor before peace is formally declared. They always do. The local bottom hit March 30th, one session before a warning of "devastating consequences." The market was already looking past the war.
As one veteran money manager told Goldman: "the market is usually right."
But here is what most people missed while watching the record close: the VIX expiration also happened yesterday. And that changes everything going forward.
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Full retracement — and then some. The S&P closed at a record 7,022.95 on Wednesday, erasing the entire post-February 27th war selloff. The March 30th low was the floor.
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What Nobody Is Telling You About The VIX Expiration
While the S&P was making headlines, roughly 5.6 million total VIX contracts quietly rolled off the board yesterday — nearly 49% of all VIX call open interest (3.8M contracts) and about 58% of all VIX put open interest (1.8M contracts). That ranks among the top 7 largest single reductions in VIX positioning ever recorded.
Think about what that means. The put-heavy skew told you traders were laser-focused on one thing: suppress volatility through yesterday's 9:30 AM ET expiration. Mission accomplished. But the cushion that kept this rally orderly? It is gone.
Here is the math that matters: SpotGamma pegs the VIX-to-SPX relationship at roughly 50 basis points of S&P upside per 1-point VIX decline. Monday's VIX drop from the 21–22 range to the high-teens delivered about +1% of positive S&P influence. Free money, basically. That tailwind is now spent.
The gamma structure was positive from 6,600 to 7,000, with heavy positive gamma above 6,900 acting as a ceiling. Starting today, and accelerating into tomorrow's OPEX, that profile flips increasingly negative. Red starts outpacing blue on the gamma chart. Translation: dealers stop absorbing volatility and start amplifying it.
The market had training wheels on for the entire rally. Yesterday, they came off.
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Positive gamma from 6,600 to 7,000 kept the rally smooth. Above 6,900: heavy resistance. After tomorrow's OPEX, the gamma profile turns negative — and the market moves freely again.
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Put-heavy skew into Wednesday's expiration. Traders bet everything on suppressing vol through yesterday morning. That bet paid off. Now the positioning is gone.
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50bps of S&P upside per 1-point VIX decline. That tailwind powered the rally into Wednesday's record. It is now largely spent heading into tomorrow's OPEX.
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Why The Rally Didn't Break
Pasquariello keeps getting asked the same question: how did equities hold through a war, a ceasefire nobody trusted, and a Hormuz blockade? He gives four answers. All of them still hold.
→ Markets never lost faith in the economy. Not once.
→ Earnings estimates kept drifting higher — not lower.
→ Household investors stayed in. Single-stock demand softened, but mutual fund and ETF inflows never broke.
→ The AI structural tailwind — credit to Goldman's Ben Snider — never wavered. This is the big one. Roughly 40% of the S&P's total earnings growth this year is expected to come from the AI investment cycle. Forty percent. That is not a theme. That is the market.
And here is the valuation check that should give you confidence: At the February 27th pullback, the S&P's forward P/E sat at 21x. At the March 30th low, it compressed to 19x. That is a rational repricing — not a panic rout. The market sold off exactly as much as it should have, then bought it all back when the thesis held. That is healthy price discovery, not blind optimism.
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Goldman's AI Leaders Basket (GSTMTAIP). The structural bid never broke — not during the selloff, not during the ceasefire uncertainty, not once.
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What Could Go Wrong — Three Scenarios
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Base
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Earnings deliver. The ceasefire extends. The gamma unclench adds chop but the bulls absorb it. You build longs on the dips and add hedges on days like Wednesday's record. This is Goldman's playbook — and it is the right one until something breaks.
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Upside
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A real deal lands. Oil drops hard. The Nasdaq extends what is already its longest win streak since 2021. Taiwan is already at fresh highs. Japan and Korea are one session away. If this breaks upside, it breaks fast.
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Risk
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Talks collapse. The ceasefire expires without extension. Oil breaks back above $100 and holds. With positive gamma already stripped, dealers amplify the selldown instead of absorbing it. European confidence — already quietly shaken — confirms the turn. Deferred Brent crude (COZ6) becomes the must-own hedge overnight.
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What To Watch
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SPX above 7,000 — the S&P closed at a record yesterday. The question now is whether new positioning rebuilds fast enough to keep it there without the gamma cushion. A failure to hold opens the door to a fast pullback with no support underneath.
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Tomorrow's OPEX (April 17) — the VIX cushion expired yesterday morning. OPEX tomorrow strips what remains. Today and tomorrow are where the real moves show up — not before.
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Ceasefire expiration next week (April 21) — Bloomberg reports both sides are discussing a two-week extension. If that lands, risk assets rally. If it does not, everything in the Risk scenario above activates at once.
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Deferred Brent crude (COZ6) — Pasquariello's tail-risk hedge. Still trading near pre-ceasefire levels. Clean, liquid, and cheap relative to what it protects against. If you are not already positioned, this is the entry.
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Today's earnings — TSMC, Netflix, PepsiCo, and Schwab all report today. If CFOs start flagging oil-driven margin pressure in forward guidance, the "stocks ignore bad news" trade breaks. Watch the language, not just the numbers.
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Deferred Brent crude (COZ6) — still near pre-ceasefire levels. Goldman's recommended hedge if the deal falls apart.
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Our View
The bull trend is intact. Goldman called the bottom. The four pillars held. AI is driving 40% of earnings growth this year and the structural bid never cracked — not through a war, not through a blockade, not through a ceasefire nobody believed in. Wednesday's record close at 7,022 confirmed it.
But here is what changed: the volatility regime. The gamma cushion that kept this rally smooth and orderly expired yesterday morning. OPEX strips what remains tomorrow. From here, every headline hits harder. Every miss lands heavier. The shock absorber is gone.
Goldman's prescription is the right call. Build longs on sharp dips. Add protection on strength. Do not chase. Do not get complacent. The rally earned your confidence. It has not earned your carelessness.
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